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STA 112 Quantifying Uncertainty Objective Question
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Question

The Law of Total Probability states that P(E) = ∑P(E|Fi)P(Fi). What does this formula conceptually represent, as described on Slide 22?
Options
A The simple sum of all conditional probabilities.
B The product of all prior probabilities.
C The unweighted average of the probabilities of the 'causes'.
D The weighted average of its conditional probabilities, weighted by the probabilities of the 'causes' F<sub>i</sub>.
Correct Answer
Correct Answer

Option D is the correct answer.

Detailed Explanation

Slide 22 explicitly states: 'This says: the total probability of E is the weighted average of its conditional probabilities, weighted by the probabilities of the "causes" Fi.'

Hint

Pay attention to the role of P(Fi) in the summation and what it signifies in terms of the overall probability of E.

Question Info

Course: STA 112
Topic: Quantifying Uncertainty
Type: Objective
Difficulty: Not specified
Question 50 of 112
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